diff --git a/IdleSpectator/Events/EventObservation.cs b/IdleSpectator/Events/EventObservation.cs
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..55a73f1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/IdleSpectator/Events/EventObservation.cs
@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
+using System;
+using ai.behaviours;
+
+namespace IdleSpectator;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Observe → confirm → emit bridge. Patches stay thin sensors; feeds only run after
+/// <see cref="EventOutcome"/> confirms the catalog claim matches game state.
+/// </summary>
+public static class EventObservation
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// If <paramref name="confirmed"/>, run <paramref name="emit"/>; otherwise record a drop.
+    /// </summary>
+    public static bool Confirm(
+        string source,
+        string eventId,
+        bool confirmed,
+        Action emit)
+    {
+        string id = string.IsNullOrEmpty(eventId) ? "unknown" : eventId.Trim();
+        string src = string.IsNullOrEmpty(source) ? "observe" : source.Trim();
+        if (!confirmed)
+        {
+            InterestDropLog.Record("outcome_unconfirmed", src + ":" + id);
+            return false;
+        }
+
+        if (emit == null)
+        {
+            return false;
+        }
+
+        emit();
+        return true;
+    }
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Prefix/Postfix helper: snapshot before a behaviour, confirm with a predicate after.
+    /// </summary>
+    public static bool ConfirmAfter(
+        string source,
+        string eventId,
+        EventOutcome.ActorFlags before,
+        Actor actor,
+        BehResult result,
+        Func<EventOutcome.ActorFlags, Actor, BehResult, bool> outcome,
+        Action emit)
+    {
+        if (outcome == null)
+        {
+            return false;
+        }
+
+        bool ok = false;
+        try
+        {
+            ok = outcome(before, actor, result);
+        }
+        catch
+        {
+            ok = false;
+        }
+
+        return Confirm(source, eventId, ok, emit);
+    }
+}
diff --git a/IdleSpectator/Events/EventOutcome.cs b/IdleSpectator/Events/EventOutcome.cs
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..da9d111
--- /dev/null
+++ b/IdleSpectator/Events/EventOutcome.cs
@@ -0,0 +1,156 @@
+using System;
+using ai.behaviours;
+
+namespace IdleSpectator;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Shared outcome checks for Layer A/B event confirmation.
+/// Patches observe; this layer answers "did the semantic event actually happen?"
+/// before any feed Emit. Do not treat <see cref="BehResult.Continue"/> as success.
+/// </summary>
+public static class EventOutcome
+{
+    /// <summary>Cheap before-snapshot for Prefix → Postfix confirmation.</summary>
+    public struct ActorFlags
+    {
+        public bool Valid;
+        public bool Alive;
+        public bool HasFamily;
+        public bool HasLover;
+    }
+
+    public static ActorFlags Snapshot(Actor actor)
+    {
+        var flags = new ActorFlags();
+        if (actor == null)
+        {
+            return flags;
+        }
+
+        flags.Valid = true;
+        try
+        {
+            flags.Alive = actor.isAlive();
+            if (!flags.Alive)
+            {
+                return flags;
+            }
+
+            flags.HasFamily = actor.hasFamily();
+            flags.HasLover = actor.hasLover();
+        }
+        catch
+        {
+            flags.Valid = false;
+        }
+
+        return flags;
+    }
+
+    public static bool IsLiving(Actor actor)
+    {
+        try
+        {
+            return actor != null && actor.isAlive();
+        }
+        catch
+        {
+            return false;
+        }
+    }
+
+    /// <summary>Behaviour node finished without Stop. Never implies semantic success.</summary>
+    public static bool BehaviourRan(BehResult result)
+    {
+        return result != BehResult.Stop;
+    }
+
+    public static bool GainedFamily(ActorFlags before, Actor actor)
+    {
+        if (!before.Valid || !before.Alive || !IsLiving(actor))
+        {
+            return false;
+        }
+
+        try
+        {
+            return !before.HasFamily && actor.hasFamily();
+        }
+        catch
+        {
+            return false;
+        }
+    }
+
+    public static bool LostFamily(ActorFlags before, Actor actor)
+    {
+        if (!before.Valid || !before.Alive || !IsLiving(actor))
+        {
+            return false;
+        }
+
+        try
+        {
+            return before.HasFamily && !actor.hasFamily();
+        }
+        catch
+        {
+            return false;
+        }
+    }
+
+    public static bool GainedLover(ActorFlags before, Actor actor)
+    {
+        if (!before.Valid || !before.Alive || !IsLiving(actor))
+        {
+            return false;
+        }
+
+        try
+        {
+            return !before.HasLover && actor.hasLover();
+        }
+        catch
+        {
+            return false;
+        }
+    }
+
+    public static bool LostLover(ActorFlags before, Actor actor)
+    {
+        if (!before.Valid || !before.Alive || !IsLiving(actor))
+        {
+            return false;
+        }
+
+        try
+        {
+            return before.HasLover && !actor.hasLover();
+        }
+        catch
+        {
+            return false;
+        }
+    }
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Still seeking: behaviour continued and the unit did not acquire a lover
+    /// (success path is <c>set_lover</c> / love status).
+    /// </summary>
+    public static bool StillSeekingLover(Actor actor, BehResult result)
+    {
+        if (!BehaviourRan(result) || !IsLiving(actor))
+        {
+            return false;
+        }
+
+        try
+        {
+            return !actor.hasLover();
+        }
+        catch
+        {
+            return false;
+        }
+    }
+}
diff --git a/IdleSpectator/Events/Patches/RelationshipEventPatches.cs b/IdleSpectator/Events/Patches/RelationshipEventPatches.cs
index 6567d9d..adc31f9 100644
--- a/IdleSpectator/Events/Patches/RelationshipEventPatches.cs
+++ b/IdleSpectator/Events/Patches/RelationshipEventPatches.cs
@@ -4,7 +4,11 @@ using HarmonyLib;
 
 namespace IdleSpectator;
 
-/// <summary>Relationship lifecycle patches from mutation discovery.</summary>
+/// <summary>
+/// Relationship lifecycle sensors. Thin Harmony only - outcomes confirmed via
+/// <see cref="EventOutcome"/> / <see cref="EventObservation"/> before Emit.
+/// Prefer state setters (<c>setLover</c>, <c>setParent*</c>, <c>newFamily</c>) over Beh Continue.
+/// </summary>
 [HarmonyPatch]
 public static class RelationshipEventPatches
 {
@@ -12,11 +16,12 @@ public static class RelationshipEventPatches
     [HarmonyPostfix]
     public static void PostfixSetLover(Actor __instance, Actor pActor)
     {
-        if (__instance == null || !__instance.isAlive())
+        if (!EventOutcome.IsLiving(__instance))
         {
             return;
         }
 
+        // setLover is already the confirmed state transition.
         if (pActor == null)
         {
             RelationshipInterestFeed.Emit("clear_lover", __instance, null);
@@ -105,24 +110,20 @@ public static class RelationshipEventPatches
 
     private static void EmitAddChild(Actor parent, Actor child, bool increaseChildren)
     {
-        if (!increaseChildren || parent == null || child == null)
-        {
-            return;
-        }
-
-        if (!parent.isAlive() || !child.isAlive())
-        {
-            return;
-        }
-
-        RelationshipInterestFeed.Emit("add_child", parent, child);
+        EventObservation.Confirm(
+            "setParent",
+            "add_child",
+            increaseChildren
+            && EventOutcome.IsLiving(parent)
+            && EventOutcome.IsLiving(child),
+            () => RelationshipInterestFeed.Emit("add_child", parent, child));
     }
 
     [HarmonyPatch(typeof(FamilyManager), nameof(FamilyManager.newFamily))]
     [HarmonyPostfix]
     public static void PostfixNewFamily(Family __result, Actor pActor)
     {
-        Actor anchor = pActor != null && pActor.isAlive() ? pActor : null;
+        Actor anchor = EventOutcome.IsLiving(pActor) ? pActor : null;
         RelationshipInterestFeed.EmitFamily("new_family", __result, anchor);
     }
 
@@ -137,70 +138,103 @@ public static class RelationshipEventPatches
     [HarmonyPostfix]
     public static void PostfixCreateBaby(Actor __result)
     {
-        if (__result == null || !__result.isAlive())
-        {
-            return;
-        }
-
-        RelationshipInterestFeed.Emit("baby_created", __result, null);
+        EventObservation.Confirm(
+            "createBaby",
+            "baby_created",
+            EventOutcome.IsLiving(__result),
+            () => RelationshipInterestFeed.Emit("baby_created", __result, null));
     }
 
     /// <summary>
-    /// Seeking only: BehFindLover returns Continue both when still searching and after
-    /// <see cref="Actor.becomeLoversWith"/>. Success is covered by set_lover / love status.
+    /// Seeking only. Beh Continue is not success - confirm still !hasLover.
+    /// Success is covered by set_lover / love status.
     /// </summary>
     [HarmonyPatch(typeof(BehFindLover), nameof(BehFindLover.execute))]
     [HarmonyPostfix]
     public static void PostfixFindLover(Actor pActor, BehResult __result)
     {
-        if (pActor == null || !pActor.isAlive() || __result == BehResult.Stop)
-        {
-            return;
-        }
+        EventObservation.Confirm(
+            "BehFindLover",
+            "find_lover",
+            EventOutcome.StillSeekingLover(pActor, __result),
+            () => RelationshipInterestFeed.Emit("find_lover", pActor, null));
+    }
 
-        if (pActor.hasLover())
-        {
-            return;
-        }
-
-        RelationshipInterestFeed.Emit("find_lover", pActor, null);
+    [HarmonyPatch(typeof(BehFamilyGroupNew), nameof(BehFamilyGroupNew.execute))]
+    [HarmonyPrefix]
+    public static void PrefixFamilyNew(Actor pActor, out EventOutcome.ActorFlags __state)
+    {
+        __state = EventOutcome.Snapshot(pActor);
     }
 
     [HarmonyPatch(typeof(BehFamilyGroupNew), nameof(BehFamilyGroupNew.execute))]
     [HarmonyPostfix]
-    public static void PostfixFamilyNew(Actor pActor, BehResult __result)
+    public static void PostfixFamilyNew(Actor pActor, BehResult __result, EventOutcome.ActorFlags __state)
     {
-        if (pActor == null || !pActor.isAlive() || __result == BehResult.Stop)
-        {
-            return;
-        }
+        // Shares founding key with new_family when both fire.
+        EventObservation.ConfirmAfter(
+            "BehFamilyGroupNew",
+            "family_group_new",
+            __state,
+            pActor,
+            __result,
+            (before, actor, result) =>
+                EventOutcome.BehaviourRan(result) && EventOutcome.GainedFamily(before, actor),
+            () => RelationshipInterestFeed.Emit(
+                "family_group_new",
+                pActor,
+                ActorRelation.ResolvePackRelated(pActor)));
+    }
 
-        // BehFamilyGroupNew always calls FamilyManager.newFamily first - share that founding key.
-        RelationshipInterestFeed.Emit("family_group_new", pActor, ActorRelation.ResolvePackRelated(pActor));
+    [HarmonyPatch(typeof(BehFamilyGroupJoin), nameof(BehFamilyGroupJoin.execute))]
+    [HarmonyPrefix]
+    public static void PrefixFamilyJoin(Actor pActor, out EventOutcome.ActorFlags __state)
+    {
+        __state = EventOutcome.Snapshot(pActor);
     }
 
     [HarmonyPatch(typeof(BehFamilyGroupJoin), nameof(BehFamilyGroupJoin.execute))]
     [HarmonyPostfix]
-    public static void PostfixFamilyJoin(Actor pActor, BehResult __result)
+    public static void PostfixFamilyJoin(Actor pActor, BehResult __result, EventOutcome.ActorFlags __state)
     {
-        if (pActor == null || !pActor.isAlive() || __result == BehResult.Stop)
-        {
-            return;
-        }
+        // Vanilla returns Continue even when getNearbyFamily was null - require GainedFamily.
+        EventObservation.ConfirmAfter(
+            "BehFamilyGroupJoin",
+            "family_group_join",
+            __state,
+            pActor,
+            __result,
+            (before, actor, result) =>
+                EventOutcome.BehaviourRan(result) && EventOutcome.GainedFamily(before, actor),
+            () => RelationshipInterestFeed.Emit(
+                "family_group_join",
+                pActor,
+                ActorRelation.ResolvePackRelated(pActor)));
+    }
 
-        RelationshipInterestFeed.Emit("family_group_join", pActor, ActorRelation.ResolvePackRelated(pActor));
+    [HarmonyPatch(typeof(BehFamilyGroupLeave), nameof(BehFamilyGroupLeave.execute))]
+    [HarmonyPrefix]
+    public static void PrefixFamilyLeave(Actor pActor, out EventOutcome.ActorFlags __state)
+    {
+        __state = EventOutcome.Snapshot(pActor);
     }
 
     [HarmonyPatch(typeof(BehFamilyGroupLeave), nameof(BehFamilyGroupLeave.execute))]
     [HarmonyPostfix]
-    public static void PostfixFamilyLeave(Actor pActor, BehResult __result)
+    public static void PostfixFamilyLeave(Actor pActor, BehResult __result, EventOutcome.ActorFlags __state)
     {
-        if (pActor == null || !pActor.isAlive() || __result == BehResult.Stop)
-        {
-            return;
-        }
-
-        RelationshipInterestFeed.Emit("family_group_leave", pActor, ActorRelation.ResolvePackRelated(pActor));
+        EventObservation.ConfirmAfter(
+            "BehFamilyGroupLeave",
+            "family_group_leave",
+            __state,
+            pActor,
+            __result,
+            (before, actor, result) =>
+                EventOutcome.BehaviourRan(result) && EventOutcome.LostFamily(before, actor),
+            () => RelationshipInterestFeed.Emit(
+                "family_group_leave",
+                pActor,
+                ActorRelation.ResolvePackRelated(pActor)));
     }
 
     /// <summary>
@@ -211,11 +245,10 @@ public static class RelationshipEventPatches
     [HarmonyPostfix]
     public static void PostfixSetAlpha(Actor pActor, bool pNew)
     {
-        if (!pNew || pActor == null || !pActor.isAlive())
-        {
-            return;
-        }
-
-        InterestFeeds.EmitAlpha(pActor, "family_set_alpha");
+        EventObservation.Confirm(
+            "Family.setAlpha",
+            "become_alpha",
+            pNew && EventOutcome.IsLiving(pActor),
+            () => InterestFeeds.EmitAlpha(pActor, "family_set_alpha"));
     }
 }
diff --git a/IdleSpectator/mod.json b/IdleSpectator/mod.json
index 4e33f40..6d95842 100644
--- a/IdleSpectator/mod.json
+++ b/IdleSpectator/mod.json
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 {
   "name": "IdleSpectator",
   "author": "dazed",
-  "version": "0.25.12",
-  "description": "AFK Idle Spectator (I) + Lore (L). Activity History peek live-relevance.",
+  "version": "0.25.14",
+  "description": "AFK Idle Spectator (I) + Lore (L). EventOutcome observe→confirm→emit.",
   "GUID": "com.dazed.idlespectator"
 }
diff --git a/docs/event-observation.md b/docs/event-observation.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..4c0da53
--- /dev/null
+++ b/docs/event-observation.md
@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+# Event observation (observe → confirm → emit)
+
+IdleSpectator learns about the game through Harmony sensors.
+Those sensors must not treat AI noise as catalog truth.
+
+## Pipeline
+
+```text
+Patch (Observe)  →  EventOutcome (Confirm)  →  Feed Emit (EventReason + catalog)
+```
+
+| Layer | Responsibility | Lives in |
+|-------|----------------|----------|
+| Observe | Thin Harmony Prefix/Postfix; snapshot before when needed | `Events/Patches/*` |
+| Confirm | Did the semantic claim happen? | `Events/EventOutcome.cs` |
+| Bridge | Drop unconfirmed with `InterestDropLog`; else run emit | `Events/EventObservation.cs` |
+| Emit | Catalog dials, keys, `EventReason` labels | `Events/Feeds/*` |
+
+## Rules
+
+1. **Never** treat `BehResult.Continue` as success by itself.
+2. Prefer **state setters** when they exist (`setLover`, `setParent*`, `newFamily`, `addNewStatusEffect`).
+3. Beh hooks need **before/after** confirmation (`EventOutcome.GainedFamily`, `StillSeekingLover`, …).
+4. Unconfirmed attempts log `outcome_unconfirmed` via `InterestDropLog` (not silent).
+5. New catalog events must name their confirm predicate (or setter) in the audit TSV `game_call_site` / `fix_action`.
+
+## Example (family join)
+
+Vanilla `BehFamilyGroupJoin` returns Continue even when no nearby family exists.
+Confirm with `GainedFamily(before, actor)` before Emit `family_group_join`.
+
+## Adding an event
+
+1. Find the real game call site (setter or Beh).
+2. Add/extend an `EventOutcome` predicate if needed.
+3. Patch calls `EventObservation.Confirm` / `ConfirmAfter` then the domain feed.
+4. Mark the audit row with the confirm rule.
+5. Harness: force or live path that asserts key + absence when outcome fails.
diff --git a/docs/event-prose-audit.md b/docs/event-prose-audit.md
index 343dc2a..3ead52e 100644
--- a/docs/event-prose-audit.md
+++ b/docs/event-prose-audit.md
@@ -117,3 +117,16 @@ Phases 4–7 worksheet complete (all audit rows `done`).
 
 Worksheet: `docs/event-trigger-audit.tsv` (all domains done).
 
+## Family pack join false positive (2026-07-16)
+
+`BehFamilyGroupJoin` returns `Continue` even when `getNearbyFamily` is null (no `setFamily`).
+IdleSpectator used to Emit on any Continue → orange “joins a family pack” with no Family meta.
+Gate: Emit only when `hasFamily()` after execute.
+
+## Observe → confirm → emit (2026-07-16)
+
+Shared pipeline: `EventOutcome` predicates + `EventObservation.Confirm*` before feeds.
+Relationship Beh hooks (find_lover, family group new/join/leave) migrated first.
+Rule: never treat `BehResult.Continue` as semantic success.
+Docs: `docs/event-observation.md`.
+
diff --git a/docs/event-reason.md b/docs/event-reason.md
index abe437f..f44aba9 100644
--- a/docs/event-reason.md
+++ b/docs/event-reason.md
@@ -82,6 +82,7 @@ Active EventLed A scenes should not silently blank a valid Label.
 
 ## See also
 
+- [`event-observation.md`](event-observation.md) - observe → confirm → emit (Beh Continue is not success)
 - [`event-audit.md`](event-audit.md) - sources, MaxWatch, A demotion set
 - [`event-prose-audit.md`](event-prose-audit.md) - prose vs game call sites
 - [`scoring-model.md`](scoring-model.md) - score weights
diff --git a/docs/event-trigger-audit.tsv b/docs/event-trigger-audit.tsv
index 34b2ec1..3b65172 100644
--- a/docs/event-trigger-audit.tsv
+++ b/docs/event-trigger-audit.tsv
@@ -212,11 +212,11 @@ relationship	clear_lover	60	True	setLover(null)+MapBox dead-lover cleanup	hook_r
 relationship	add_child	74	True	Actor.setParent1/setParent2	hook_retarget		done
 relationship	new_family	72	True	FamilyManager.newFamily	accurate		done
 relationship	family_removed	58	True	FamilyManager.removeObject	accurate	Confirmed patch + EventReason prose	done
-relationship	find_lover	52	True	BehFindLover Continue && !hasLover	gate		done
+relationship	find_lover	52	True	BehFindLover + EventOutcome.StillSeekingLover	gate	EventObservation; success via set_lover	done
 relationship	become_alpha	74	True	Family.setAlpha	accurate		done
-relationship	family_group_new	58	True	BehFamilyGroupNew; shares new_family key	merge		done
-relationship	family_group_join	36	True	BehFamilyGroupJoin	accurate	Confirmed patch + EventReason prose	done
-relationship	family_group_leave	36	True	BehFamilyGroupLeave	accurate	Confirmed patch + EventReason prose	done
+relationship	family_group_new	58	True	BehFamilyGroupNew + EventOutcome.GainedFamily	accurate	EventObservation; shares new_family key	done
+relationship	family_group_join	36	True	BehFamilyGroupJoin + EventOutcome.GainedFamily	gate	EventObservation; Continue≠join	done
+relationship	family_group_leave	36	True	BehFamilyGroupLeave + EventOutcome.LostFamily	accurate	EventObservation	done
 relationship	baby_created	72	True	ActorManager.createBabyActorFromData	accurate		done
 traits	zombie	72	True	Actor.addTrait/removeTrait → EventReason.Trait	prose_fix	Catalog label aligned to gains/loses; spawn-window gate	done
 traits	wise	38	True	Actor.addTrait/removeTrait → EventReason.Trait	prose_fix	Catalog label aligned to gains/loses; spawn-window gate	done